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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Fatal Attraction

Fatal Attraction »

Source: Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies

Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies : Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord

Volume/Issue: 2000/69

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Brieuc Monfort

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451849059

Keywords: Rating agencies, capital requirements, economic crises, crisis index, credit ratings, asian crisis

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ra...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Leading Indicators of Banking Crises

Leading Indicators of Banking Crises »

Source: Leading Indicators of Banking Crises : Was Asia Different?

Volume/Issue: 1998/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 1998

ISBN: 9781451951745

Keywords: Banking crises, leading indicators, East Asia, banking, banking system, banking sector, banking system distress

This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Source: Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...

Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis1

Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis1 »

Source: Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 1998/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Taimur Baig , and Ilan Goldfajn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857283

Keywords: Contagion, Asian Crises, Financial Markets, news, correlations, correlation, dummy variables, significance level

This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to...

East Asia in the Aftermath

East Asia in the Aftermath »

Source: East Asia in the Aftermath : Was there a Crunch?

Volume/Issue: 1999/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atish Ghosh , and Swart Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1999

ISBN: 9781451845679

Keywords: Credit crunch, East Asia Currency Crises, capital adequacy, banking, banking system, banking system liabilities

This paper uses a disequilibrium framework to investigate a possible credit crunch in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) during 1997-98. It defines a credit crunch as a situation in wh...

Currency Crisis and Contagion

Currency Crisis and Contagion »

Source: Currency Crisis and Contagion : Evidence From Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand

Volume/Issue: 2000/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Nagayasu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451845822

Keywords: Asian financial crisis, contagion, stock indices, currency crisis, currency crises, stock index

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study...

Corporate Performance and Governance in Malaysia

Corporate Performance and Governance in Malaysia »

Source: Corporate Performance and Governance in Malaysia

Volume/Issue: 2002/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , Yougesh Khatri , and J. Piesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2002

ISBN: 9781451857108

Keywords: stochastic frontier, Southeast Asian crisis, corporate sector, functional form, financial crises, asian crisis, Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform,

This paper measures corporate sector performance (efficiency) and empirically examines the role of corporate governance. A stochastic frontier with inefficiency effects is fitted to a panel dataset of 31 of the lar...